The role of statistics in the
pandemic response

1. Examples of statistical modelling during the pandemic
2. The value of statistical thinking during the pandemic

Example: Estimating the reproduction number

\[I(t) = R_t \sum_{\tau} g_{\tau} I_{t-\tau}\]

Example: Transmissibility of new variatns

Example: Severity of new variants

Example: Nowcasting deaths

Example: Calibrating scenario models

The value of statistical thinking

1. Respect for data, its origins and limitations
2. Transparency of methodology
3. Interpretation of results (especially uncertainty)

Many statistical tasks during epidemics are common

Prospective model evaluation