The role of statistics in the
pandemic response

A modeller’s perspective


Sebastian Funk (@sbfnk)
https://epiforecasts.io

21 June, 2022
RSS Meeting on Evidence and Policy Making

  1. Examples of statistical modelling during the pandemic
  2. The value of statistical thinking during the pandemic

Example: Estimating the reproduction number

\[I(t) = R_t \sum_{\tau} g_{\tau} I_{t-\tau}\]

Abbott et al., Wellcome Open Res, 2020

Example: Transmissibility of new variatns

Davies et al., Science, 2021

Example: Severity of new variants

Nyberg et al., Lancet, 2022

Example: Nowcasting deaths

Seaman et al., J Roy Stat Soc, 2022

Example: Calibrating scenario models

Knock et al., Sci Trans Med, 2021

The value of statistical thinking

  1. Respect for data, its origins and limitations
  2. Transparency of methodology
  3. Interpretation of results (especially uncertainty)

Many statistical tasks during epidemics are common

UKHSA, 2022

Prospective model evaluation

https://covid19nowcasthub.de, led by Johannes Bracher

xkcd.com